Table 1 Candidate predictor datasets, Somalia
Predictor | Variable(s) | Domain | Time span of availability | Source(s) | Notes and assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Administrative level | Administrative entity within Somalia | (various) | n/a (static variable) | n/a | Somaliland, Puntland, south-central Somalia |
Rainfall | Total rainfall (mm) | Climate | 2013 to 2018 | Climate Engine (https://clim-engine-development.appspot.com/fewsNet) [15] | |
Mean of Standard Precipitation Index | 2016 to 2018 | Compares current rainfall with historical averages | |||
Vegetation density | Normalised Difference Vegetation Index | Climate | 2013 to 2018 | Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit—Somalia (FSNAU) | |
Incidence of armed conflict events | events per 100,000 population deaths per 100,000 population | Exposure to armed conflict / insecurity | 2010 to 2018 | Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED, https://www.acleddata.com/) [16] | Meta-data on individual armed conflict events based on extensive review of multi-language media sources and other public information |
Incidence of attacks against aid workers | deaths per 100,000 population injuries per 100,000 population | Exposure to armed conflict / insecurity | 2010 to 2018 | Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD, https://aidworkersecurity.org/incidents) | Data on various types of attacks to aid workers, capturing information from media sources, aid organisations and security actors |
Proportion of IDPs | proportion of IDPs among total district population | Forced displacement | 2016 to 2018 | Estimated by authors as part of a separate mortality study [10] | |
Main local livelihood type | Pastoral, agropastoral, riverine and urban | Food security and livelihoods | n/a (static variable) | FSNAU | Assumed to be constant over time |
Water price | Price of 200L drum of water in Somali Shillings | Food insecurity and livelihoods | 2013 to 2018 | FSNAU | |
Terms of trade purchasing power index | Kcal equivalent of local cereals that an average local-quality goat can be exchanged for | Food insecurity and livelihoods | 2013 to 2018 | Calculated by the authors [10] as part of a separate mortality study based on FSNAU price data from 100 sentinel markets | See Annex of citation for more details on calculation. |
Kcal equivalent of local cereals that can be purchased with an average daily labourer wage | |||||
Incidence of admission to nutritional therapeutic services | cases of SAM admitted to treatment services per 100,000 population | Nutritional status | 2011 to 2018 | Nutrition Cluster, Somalia | Unpublished data |
cases of GAM admitted to treatment services per 100,000 population | 2013 to 2018 | ||||
Cholera incidence | cases per 100,000 population | Disease burden (epidemic) | 2013 to 2018 | FSNAU | Suspected and confirmed cases |
Measles incidence | cases per 100,000 population | Disease burden (epidemic) | 2013 to 2018 | FSNAU | Suspected and confirmed cases |
Malaria incidence | cases per 100,000 population | Disease burden (endemic) | 2013 to 2018 | FSNAU | Suspected and confirmed cases |
Humanitarian actor presence | Ongoing humanitarian projects per 100,000 population (all sectors) | Humanitarian (public health) service functionality | 2010 to 2018 | United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs | Proxy of intensity of humanitarian response Unpublished data |
Ongoing projects per 100,000 population (health, nutrition and water, hygiene and sanitation) | |||||
Food security humanitarian services | Proportion of the population that are a beneficiary of any food security service | Humanitarian (public health) service coverage | Jan 2013 to Apr 2018 | Food Security Cluster, Somalia | Unpublished data |
Proportion of the population that are a beneficiary of cash-based food security services | Humanitarian (public health) service coverage | ||||
Proportion of the population that are a beneficiary of food distributions | Humanitarian (public health) service coverage | ||||
Quality of SAM treatment | Proportion of SAM admissions that exit the treatment programme cured | Humanitarian (public health) service quality | 2011 to 2018 | Nutrition Cluster, Somalia | Unpublished data |