Table 2 Candidate predictor datasets, South Sudan
Variable | Value(s) | Domain | Time span of availability | Source(s) | Notes and assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Administrative level | Broad region within South Sudan | (various) | n/a (static variable) | n/a | northeast, northwest, southern |
Rainfall | Difference between current rainfall and 10y historical average (mm) | Climate | 2014 to 2018 | United Nations World Food Programme Food Security Analysis data site ( http://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/seasonal_explorer/rainfall_vegetation/visualizations) | |
Incidence of armed conflict events | events per 100,000 population deaths per 100,000 population | Exposure to armed conflict / insecurity | 2010 to 2018 | Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLE, https://www.acleddata.com/) [16] | Meta-data on individual armed conflict events based on extensive review of multi-language media sources and other public information |
Incidence of attacks against aid workers | deaths per 100,000 population injuries per 100,000 population | Exposure to armed conflict / insecurity | 2010 to 2018 | Aid Worker Security Database (AWSD, https://aidworkersecurity.org/incidents) | Data on various types of attacks to aid workers, capturing information from media sources, aid organisations and security actors |
Proportion of IDPs | proportion | Forced displacement | 2012 to 2018 | Estimated by authors as part of a separate mortality study [11] | |
Main local livelihood type | agriculturalist, agropastoral, pastoralist, displaced (Protection of Civilians camps only) | Food security and livelihoods | n/a (static variable) | Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) [17] | Assumed to be constant over time |
Terms of trade purchasing power index | Kg of white wheat flour that an average medium goat can be exchanged for | Food insecurity and livelihoods | 2011 to 2018 | CLiMIS portal (http://climis-southsudan.org/) | |
Food distributions | metric tonnes per 100,000 population | Food insecurity and livelihoods | 2013 to 2018 | United Nations World Food Programme | Unpublished data |
Incidence of admission to nutritional therapeutic services | cases of SAM admitted to treatment services per 100,000 population | Nutritional status | 2015 to 2018 | Nutrition Cluster, South Sudan | Unpublished data |
cases of GAM admitted to treatment services per 100,000 population | |||||
Cholera incidence | cases per 100,000 population | Disease burden (epidemic) | 2012 to 2018 | World Health Organization | Suspected and confirmed cases. No cases reported before 2014. Unpublished data |
Measles incidence | cases per 100,000 population | Disease burden (epidemic) | 2012 to 2018 | World Health Organization | Suspected and confirmed cases. Unpublished data |
Humanitarian actor presence | actors per 100,000 population (all sectors; health, nutrition and water, hygiene & sanitation; health only) | Humanitarian (public health) service functionality | 2014 to 2018 | United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs | Proxy of intensity of humanitarian response Unpublished data |
Acute flaccid paralysis incidence | cases per 100,000 population | Humanitarian (public health) service functionality | 2012 to 2018 | World Health Organization | Proxy of functionality of public health surveillance |
Uptake of measles routine vaccination | doses given per 100,000 population | Humanitarian (public health) service coverage | 2012 to 2018 | World Health Organization | Assume no value = no routine vaccination taking place |
Quality of SAM treatment | Proportion of SAM admissions that exit the treatment programme cured | Humanitarian (public health) service quality | 2015 to 2018 | Nutrition Cluster, Somalia | Unpublished data |
Quality of MAM treatment | Proportion of MAM admissions that exit the treatment programme cured | Humanitarian (public health) service quality | 2015 to 2018 | Nutrition Cluster, Somalia | Unpublished data |