Statistic | Categorical outcomes | Continuous outcomes | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAM (WFH + oedema) | GAM (WFH + oedema) | SAM (MUAC + oedema) | GAM (MUAC + oedema) | WFH | MUAC | ||||||
Predictors: coefficient† on training data | |||||||||||
Incidence of acute flaccid paralysis | previous 3mths | previous 3mths | previous 3mths | previous 3mths | |||||||
0 per 100,000 | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | |||||||
0.01 to 0.49 per 100,000 | 0.94 | 0.80* | 0.99 | 0.08** | |||||||
≥ 0.50 per 100,000 | 1.17* | 1.19 | 1.16** | -0.03 | |||||||
Main local livelihood type | |||||||||||
Agriculturalists | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | ||||||||
Agro-pastoralists | 1.46*** | -0.30*** | -0.21*** | ||||||||
Displaced | 1.44*** | -0.36*** | -0.09* | ||||||||
Pastoralists | 1.02 | -0.15*** | -0.13** | ||||||||
Total rainfall | previous 6mths | previous 6mths | previous 6mths | ||||||||
< 50mm | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | ||||||||
50 to 99mm | 0.98 | 0.99 | -0.02 | ||||||||
100 to 149mm | 0.74*** | 0.80*** | 0.11*** | ||||||||
≥ 150mm | 0.78 | 0.97 | 0.00 | ||||||||
Terms of trade (flour-goat exchange) | 3-5mths prior | 4-6mths prior | 4-6mths prior | ||||||||
< 20.0Kg | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | ||||||||
20.0 to 29.9Kg | 0.88* | 0.80*** | 0.15*** | ||||||||
30.0 to 39.9Kg | 0.70*** | 0.84*** | 0.10*** | ||||||||
≥ 40.0 Kg | 0.81** | 1.00 | 0.02 | ||||||||
Incidence of measles | 2-4mths prior | 1-3mths prior | 1-3mths prior | 1-3mths prior | |||||||
0 | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | [ref.] | |||||||
> 0 | 1.06 | 1.16* | -0.04 | -0.07* | |||||||
Doses of measles vaccine administered | 3-5mths prior | ||||||||||
0 per 100,000 | [ref.] | ||||||||||
0.1 to 99.9 per 100,000 | 1.24 | ||||||||||
100.0 to 199.9 per 100,000 | 1.21 | ||||||||||
200.0 to 299.9 per 100,000 | 1.74*** | ||||||||||
≥ 300.0 per 100,000 | 1.14 | ||||||||||
Estimation performance | |||||||||||
Mean square error | training data | 0.00046 | 0.00297 | 0.00017 | 0.00198 | 0.05358 | 0.10680 | ||||
LOOCV | 0.00056 | 0.00368 | 0.00020 | 0.00221 | 0.06670 | 0.12667 | |||||
holdout data | 0.00039 | 0.00342 | 0.00009 | 0.00150 | 0.06680 | 0.09943 | |||||
Relative bias | LOOCV | +41.1% | +12.7% | +80.9% | +38.9% | +9.9% | 0.0% | ||||
holdout data | +49.1% | +14.4% | +88.4% | +20.5% | +16.0% | -0.1% | |||||
Relative precision of 95%CI | LOOCV | ±11.4% | ±5.4% | ±16.4% | ±4.8% | ±2.9% | ±0.2% | ||||
holdout data | ±11.4% | ±6.1% | ±16.1% | ±4.6% | ±3.3% | ±0.2% | |||||
Coverage of 95%CI | LOOCV | 64.3% | 45.1% | 68.7% | 49.6% | 38.9% | 30.4% | ||||
holdout data | 66.1% | 58.9% | 82.1% | 57.1% | 30.4% | 48.2% | |||||
Coverage of 80%CI | LOOCV | 44.3% | 29.2% | 47.0% | 34.8% | 28.3% | 26.1% | ||||
holdout data | 46.4% | 33.9% | 60.7% | 42.9% | 21.4% | 33.9% | |||||
Classification performance by SAM/GAM prevalence threshold (n = denominator of percentage) | |||||||||||
Sensitivity, lower threshold | LOOCV | ≥2% | 100.0% (97) | ≥15% | 89.7% (78) | ≥2% | 28.1% (32) | ≥15% | 0.0% (9) | n/a | |
holdout data | 100.0% (48) | 93.8% (32) | 27.3% (11) | 0.0% (4) | |||||||
Sensitivity, upper threshold | LOOCV | ≥5% | 31.0% (42) | ≥20% | 60.0% (45) | ≥5% | 0.0% (3) | ≥20% | 0.0% (2) | ||
holdout data | 42.9% (14) | 35.3% (17) | n/a (0) | 0.0% (2) | |||||||
Specificity, lower threshold | LOOCV | <2% | 0.0% (18) | <15% | 40.0% (35) | <2% | 86.7% (83) | <15% | 100.0% (106) | ||
holdout data | 0.0% (8) | 25.0% (24) | 100.0% (45) | 100.0% (52) | |||||||
Specificity, upper threshold | LOOCV | <5% | 76.7% (73) | <20% | 76.5% (68) | <5% | 100.0% (112) | <20% | 100.0% (113) | ||
holdout data | 90.5% (42) | 87.2% (39) | 100.0% (56) | 100.0% (54) |